Greens voters going to ALP: um, why?

Well, that’ll make the ALP Right factional bosses happy. In the first Newspoll since they rolled Kevin and installed Julia, they’ve improved their position against the real enemy:

The coalition’s primary vote support is unchanged on 40 per cent, but the Greens’ vote fell back five points to ten per cent.

Remember: the ALP Right hates the Greens, a party that by actually representing progressive voters in parliament would force the ALP to actually try to address our concerns between elections rather than completely ignoring them, as much as – if not more than – they hate Liberals. The above result is exactly, exactly what they wanted. The Green vote rising was making the ALP left (the timid, abused, patronised, maligned ALP left) worried that they couldn’t get away with just calling themselves progressive every election and then voting constantly for the Right’s conservative legislation, and they were starting to stand up to them a little bit, out of desperate self-preservation. The Greens represent the sort of policies that the ALP Right is so accomplished at killing within the ALP – except that on the floor of Parliament, they don’t wield the same power. When they argue with lefties in public, it highlights to progressive voters just how hostile they are to everything we believe: there’s a reason they want lefties “inside the tent” where they can be crushed quietly.

The ALP Right might pretend that the enemy is Tony Abbott, but except for industrial relations, it agrees with them on almost everything else. They can sympathise with the major party’s dilemma: pretending to represent opposing camps simultaneously. Also, they’ve both a strong self-interest in maintaining the present duopoly: something a representative, policy-based party threatens. And a strong alternative for voters undermines the big old parties traditional fall-back appeal: “at least we’re not the other guys”.

As I said, the ALP Right hates the Greens above all.

And, if the poll isn’t an aberration, the factions have succeeded in tricking some progressive voters into thinking that suddenly the ALP has changed. While Gillard flags an intention to lunge to the Right on policy, it appears that some lefty voters believe that she’ll suddenly represent them because – why? Because she was a lefty twenty years ago? Because she’s a straight-talking woman? It certainly can’t be because she’s promised to seriously address any progressive concerns better than Rudd did, because she hasn’t.

It’ll be a true indictment on the Australian electorate if a major party can fix up its electoral woes not be changing its policies, but by merely swapping salespeople. Seriously, who are these people who were going to vote Green who’ve now shifted to Labor? Why? Can they explain what they’re thinking?

12 responses to “Greens voters going to ALP: um, why?

  1. trusting newspoll data is …unwise

  2. Why?

  3. Jeremy, I haven’t read up on this much as yet but I suspect a lot of it has to do with what we discussed on your blog a week or so back. Many people, including myself, were very, very disillusioned with Kev as a Leader and moved camp to The Greens. JuliaG seems to provide a much more personable and traditional ALP view and many have shifted back.

    As I said – haven’t read up on this fully though.

  4. I would also suspect that many people are still caught up in the enormity of what happened last week.

    Whatever side of politics you dwell on, you’d have to admit that Wednesday’s / Thursday’s events were amazing and historical. It’s not too often, with Australian politics you end up with everyone standing around a monitor watching a live press conference.

  5. “JuliaG seems to provide a much more personable and traditional ALP view”

    That’s what I don’t get – what actually has she changed other than indicating she’s going to be even nastier on refugees and will cave to the big three miners somewhat?

    “Whatever side of politics you dwell on, you’d have to admit that Wednesday’s / Thursday’s events were amazing and historical. It’s not too often, with Australian politics you end up with everyone standing around a monitor watching a live press conference.”

    Oh, hell yes. Why that would in and of itself change people’s votes, though, is a bit more of a mystery.

  6. “what actually has she changed ”

    Nought. But the MSM love her to bits. Even Bolt has a little bit of a crush on her but I’m sure that will change now she’s actually leading the party.

    Remember Jeremy, the vast majority of those people they polled would have turned off the news and put it all to the backs of their minds by the time The Footy Show came on Thursday night.

  7. Splatterbottom

    The coalition specifically targeted Rudd’s inability to communicate, and his credibility. The ALP has agreed with them, rat-fucked Rudd and elected a new leader who has more credibility, and who is a better communicator.

    Her job is to move the agenda away from contentious issues. After the election it may be a different story. Interestingly she will be able to use this against the mining companies by explaining to them that the government has more incentive to compromise with them now, as after the election things will get a whole lot harder for them.

    They only policy remit Gillard has is to win back the outer urban seats now under threat. This means she has to spin to the right. whether the policies actually change is another matter entirely.

  8. What SB said.

    If you wanted any better illustration that personality politics is alive and well in Australia, this would have to be it.

    The media told us to hate Rudd, so we hated Rudd. Now that Rudd is gone we’re happy with the ALP again. It’s pretty straightforward really (until the media starts telling us to hate Julia too).

    At least the latest polls should put an end to the utter idiocy of those trying to tell us that Liberal voters were ‘parking’ votes with the Greens as a protest against Abbott. I can’t believe so many professional commentators swallowed that pile of crap.

  9. I don’t know… I think when the Turnbull/Georgiou small “l” liberals were so brutally dispatched by the Liberal Party there were a number of former Coalition voters who pottered over to the Greens.

    I suspect there are a number of moderate Coalition voters who have a real problem with Abbott but hate the ALP and would consider voting Green instead.

  10. I’m actually cautiously optimistic about her stance on net censorship and civil unions. Being non-religious, she might find sucking up to the ACL less usefull than Rudd did. Still, I know that at this point it’s all just speculation.

  11. If she was going to do that she wouldn’t have left Conroy where he is.

  12. confessions

    Poss unpacks the quarterly Newspoll, lost in the whole Rudd Removal business last week.

    As we saw with Nielsen preference dynamics and Essential voter firmness behaviour, there appeared to be significant compositional shifts at play, with the Greens also picking up ex-Coalition voters as the Coalition was itself picking up ex-ALP voters. If we look at what was happening at the state level of data, with the primary vote and the primary vote swing since the last election – we find that there was some quite complicated dynamics occurring between the states.

    And it was Bob Brown on Fri or Sat who said wtte “Greens voters are parking their vote with the ALP”. I agree, it’s a stupid comment.

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