I’m calling it first. Tony Abbott to win in 2010.

Well, I’m convinced. Here’s why:

  • Governments can always be defeated by attacking a policy of theirs as “a great big new tax”.
  • Australian electorates like aggressive leaders from the section of their party furthest from the centre.
  • Tony’s previous contradictory statements can easily be explained away as “I was doing my best to support the then leader, and that’s what frontbenchers have to do”.
  • There aren’t really that many women who vote, are there?
  • The Australian electorate is “at large essentially conservative“, and only voted for Rudd because his party starts with the same letter as Tony’s and they got confused.
  • The other reason the Liberals lost in 2007 was because some voters didn’t like the word “WorkChoices”. Tony will call it something else.
  • Staccato delivery sounds considered. And. Sincere.
  • Kevin Rudd is going to murder and eat a puppy whilst mooning the camera on the last 7.30 Report before the next election.

Also, because it’s the worst thing I can imagine happening to Australia and I’m a pessimist.

UPDATE: The Abbot-Change Deniers are already descending to damn anyone who doesn’t agree with the Abbot-Change theory. I wish it wasn’t true – I’d dearly like them to be right – but the science is in. The list above speaks for itself.

UPDATE #2: Also, Tony has the support of Catch The Fire. That’s got to be worth at least an extra 20% chance of a miraculous win.

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36 responses to “I’m calling it first. Tony Abbott to win in 2010.

  1. “Staccato delivery sounds considered. And. Sincere.”

    In that case, Tony will be rolled by Erica Betz.

    Erica just oozes charm, sophistication and charisma.

    Not to mention those dashing good looks and great sense of humour!

  2. Erica Betz , that’s what it sounds like to me too – LOL

    I always used to hear Brenda Nelson as well.

    “Kevin Rudd is going to murder and eat a puppy whilst mooning the camera on the last 7.30 Report before the next election.”

    That would be a vote winner…..errrrr….

    Well, his popularity got a boost when we found out he went to a strip club, murdering puppies would be a natural prgression wouldn’t it???

  3. I don’t think Tone sounds like Abetz. Abetz is far more annoying to listen to.

  4. Already Abbott has proven just what sort of an opposition leader he will be. He has already used lines and buzz words out of the wingnut lexicon. Accusing Rudd of trying to become secretary general of the UN on the 7.30 report? Good grief.

    His leadership will not be one of considered alternative policy and reasoned argument, but one of personal attacks, distortion, half truths and lies, buzz words and pandering to the paranoid conspiracy theorists who now supposedly make up the Conservative party “base”.

    People continue to say otherwise but my tip is that Higgins falls to the Greens in a protest vote this saturday. The Conservatives are going to lose more of their “base” by sticking up Abbott than the One Nation sympathisers and whackaloons they would have lost by passing the ETS.

  5. Yes Patrick. And expect a far more strident attack on asylum seekers under his leadership.

  6. Any bugger underestimatinbg Australia’s populace not to do the “stupid”must have been born last week.

    John Winston Howard is a true case in point.Australia threw out one of Australia’s greatest P.M.’s, to put in the most self serving irritating arsehole to ever grace the halls of the Australian parliament.And not just once I might add.

    Anyone thinking we couldn’t wakeup to Tony Abbott as P.M. I suggest take a long cool shower.

    Mr Rudd should be very careful about the vagaries of the Australian populace when it comes to voting, we have been down this road before.

    T

  7. Sorry, but http://www.springhillvoice.com called it first by a million miles on 27/11/09.

    Scroll down to “Cornflakes with the next Prime Minister”.

  8. I wish it wasn’t true – I’d dearly like them to be right – but the science is in

    LOL you are too funny. Do you realise how rediculios that statement is now that Climategate is out there for all to see.

    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/143573/Climate-change-fraud-

    You are now very quickly becoming the true deniers of climate change now that the fraud has become public.

  9. Women do vote – Abbott won’t win.

    End of story.

  10. “Do you realise how rediculios that statement is now that Climategate is out there for all to see.”

    You seem to think “Climategate” proves something it doesn’t.

  11. You seem to think “Climategate” proves something it doesn’t

    Said like a TRUE Denier.

    Well this proves more than you are willing to accept.

    The university says Phil Jones will relinquish his position until the completion of an independent review into allegations that he worked to alter the way in which global temperature data was presented.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j_dt9Bjj5yVV7k1PAyDnVHKvKtgAD9CAM0VG0

    As I said, you are the true denier .

  12. By the way, does anyone else agree, that Rudd is being a complete and utter COWARD now that he won’t call an election on Climate change and his ETS.

  13. I thought RWDBs had been consigned to history. It looks like Abbott is causing the living dead to rise again.

    Karen, a little intelligent research and thinking goes a lot further than relying on the Telegraph and Herald-Sun for your facts.

  14. As I said, you are the true denier .

    Karen: if so-called Climategate “proves more than [we] are willing to accept”, why does the Liberal party even need to have a policy on climate change? Shouldn’t they just admit that AGW is a massive scientific fraud and declare that they won’t have a policy on the issue?

  15. By the way, does anyone else agree, that Rudd is being a complete and utter COWARD now that he won’t call an election on Climate change and his ETS.

    Why should he? In returning the legislation to parliament we’re about to see how wedded to Joe Hockey was to his conviction that the CPRS was good policy. Will he resign from the front bench and cross the floor and vote with the government? What about Turnbull, will he cross the floor? How about Kelly O’Dwyer and Paul Fletcher if they enter parliament?

    In fact will we see the Libs split again, only this time the so-called moderates stage a revolt and white ant the Far Right loons?

    Pass the popcorn Karen LOL!

  16. You’re funny Karen…. So, possible improper actions from one (or a few) climate scientists invalidates all the independently verified research from every climate scientist around the world?

    For a second I let myself believe it was all a hoax, just to see what it would feel like. It felt wonderful for sure but unfortunately I was unable to maintain this altered sense of reality for very long.

    I suggest you have a look here http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/09/14/correspondence-with-ian-plimer/ for an insight in to the kind of scientific standards Ian Plimer adheres to

  17. Here Karen.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

    Educate yourself. I know I know, none of this is written by Andrew Bolt, and it’s from that vile leftist leaning den of facts Wikipedia, but please, try to keep an open mind, k?

  18. Of course one major fly in the ointment of your argument here is your rather silly assumption that women will not vote for Tony Abbott because he takes a principled stand on the abortion issue. your assumption ignores the fact that many actually agree with his position because of their own ethical or religious beliefs, and it ignores his clear record , as health minister of not imposing his own views during his term as health minister in the previous government.
    Thanks fro citing my comment at PP BTW 😉

  19. his clear record , as health minister of not imposing his own views during his term as health minister in the previous government.

    This is not true.

    With the RU486 issue he wanted to retain ministerial responsibility for its approval so he could continue to veto its public availability. It caused a revolt in his party because he was acting on his religious views rather than the policy imperatives. Howard shafted him and allowed parliament to have a conscience vote, which resulted in approval mechanisms being removed from the health minister role.

  20. Sure Ian, there are many who agree with Abbott’s stance on abortion.

    Are they the majority? No.

    Are those voters the ones in the center who are going to deliver him government? No.

    If Abbott is smart (which he is) he will take a small target aproach, the same aproach that was used by the last two opposition leaders who won government, but I think he is already has a bullseye the size of the Sydney Opera House stuck to his head, given the things he has said in the past.

    Even so, I don’t think the times are right for even a small target aproach. The electorate only seems to want a change of government when they are fed up and bored with the current one, and the electorate is not really showing any signs they are growing bored with Rudd just yet, and they probably aren’t going to get to that point at least until 2013.

  21. And what confessions said. I knew something along those lines had happened but couldn’t recall the exact details, so I thought I’d leave it alone unless I said something that wasn’t true.

  22. Confessions wins the thread.

    Well said – saves me the typing 🙂

  23. AdamTheLurker

    I thought Karen was being sarcastic, then she started using newspapers for evidence.

    I wish I still had that cosy idea that newspapers told the truth and didn’t have a bias.

    I like to think I’m fairly optimistic, but seeing so many attempts to allow gay marriage foiled in America and over here gives me a horrible feeling Ominous Lefty is right.

  24. Somehow I don’t think Howard worked the phones on behalf of Hockey or Turnbull. Abbot might speak the truth when he says he’s not Howard, as he no doubt will in response to Labor’s claim that he’s stuck in the past, but a vote against Abbot will definitely be a vote against Howard. Labor will crush the coalition.

    P.S. Off-topic: please cover Lawrence Money’s blog over at Pure Poison. I think he’s revealed himself to be similar to his good mate Andrew Bolt.

  25. Labor will crush the coalition.

    That’s pretty much my view too Hudson. Abbott is too flighty, too unpredictable. I bet that person who wrote “No” on their leadership ballott is regretting not voting properly!

  26. The comments on him getting international news in UK and US were just pathetic too. Did those bogans realise it was negative news?

  27. You’ve got one thing right BS, this is the Bogans versus the Chattering Class. It’s just another chapter in the culture wars. Sadly the chatterers are unable even to detect the stench of their own smugness. They just get high on it and then wonder what happened when the real world catches up with them.

  28. I just remembered another example of Abbott’s religion interfering with his ministerial role: once he became Health minister he put priests on almost every departmental committee, irrespective of whether he had subject-specific expertise or experience.

    The committee I was on wasted so much time having to explain to this person the very basics just so he could participate. He contributed nothing – a waste of taxpayer funds and all for Abbott’s religious vanities.

  29. Please SB, don’t talk about smugness. You have no expertise in that area.

  30. Why should he? In returning the legislation to parliament we’re about to see how wedded to Joe Hockey was to his conviction that the CPRS was good policy. Will he resign from the front bench and cross the floor and vote with the government? What about Turnbull, will he cross the floor? How about Kelly O’Dwyer and Paul Fletcher if they enter parliament?

    n other words Bob brown is right. Krudd is only interested in playing politics with climate change.

    So when Julia Gillard states that “Delay is Denial” she is being a MASSIVE hypocrite.

    You people that worship at the alter of Krudd are like a parody.

  31. “You people that worship at the ‘alter’ (snigger) of Krudd..”

    Who’s worshipping at what now?!

    Im pretty sure Jeremy is a Greens voter, as are many of the regulars on this site.

    “You people…are like a parody.”

    Very astute self analasis Karen. You are right, you loony rightwingers really HAVE become like a parody, or perhaps more like a bad joke.

    “Bob brown is right.”

    Yes, he often is. Im glad you have come to this realisation.

    Karen, can we count on YOU to support The Greens at the next election, now that you realise the error of your ways?

    So Karen…..i can tell you are really missing AB’s blog forums. But surely you could find a second home with Tim Blair, or on some US conspiracy theory blog?

    If not, there is always Boltaholics Anonomous. With Gods help, you CAN beat this terrible affliction.

  32. Karen: if AGW is a massive scam, then why does the Liberal party need a climate change policy? And given your lot clearly don’t accept AGW is happening, isn’t it more hypocritical to pretend to voters you do?

  33. Karen: if AGW is a massive scam, then why does the Liberal party need a climate change policy? And given your lot clearly don’t accept AGW is happening, isn’t it more hypocritical to pretend to voters you do?

    If climate change is really the biggest challange to face humanity as Krudd claims, then why does he need to play politic with it? Wgy doesn’t he call an election?

    The truth is that Krudd is a COWARD and he is afraid to call a DD election on climate change.

  34. I see. You are just a one-trick pony with no capacity for confronting your own delusionism.

    And as someone else mentioned, if you think commenters here have any rusted on allegience to Kevin Rudd you’ve been poorly advised as to which blogs to troll.

    LOL at Karen.

  35. maybe you are second cuz:

    Mary said on This is not Alpine Opinion post entitled Liberal Party of Australia’s science credo, on December 1, 2009 at 06:16 Too late Amanda. Here is another scientific truth for this post:
    Tony Abbott will win with a landslide at the next federal election.

  36. Pingback: Liberals win safe liberal seats: thank god for Tony! « An Onymous Lefty

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